Shanghai copper futures continue to fall, support will gradually weaken
On Tuesday, the main 1708 contract of Shanghai copper futures opened at 45,170 yuan / ton. After the opening, the copper price repeatedly consolidated around the opening price. In the afternoon, the copper price surged to 45,310 yuan / ton, and then fell under the pressure of the 10-day moving average, and accelerated to 44,920 yuan / ton in late trading. Tons closed at the big Yinxian. In the day, Shanghai copper futures continued to fall. In view of the sharp fall in London copper, it may open lower and then repair upwards.
outer disk
London copper opened at $5,637/ton. After the opening, London copper slowly rose to $5,659.5/ton based on the daily moving average. Then, under the suppression of the 40-day moving average, London copper dived, reaching as low as $5,554/ton, and then stabilized at a low level. At 17:26, London copper was quoted at $5,572/ton. Inner London copper plunged sharply, and it is expected that in the short term, it will mainly be repaired upwards, and the decline will be corrected too quickly.
macro
Overnight, the U.S. ISM non-manufacturing index in May was 56.9, lower than the expected value of 57.1, but the index was above the 50 watershed between prosperity and decline for 89 consecutive months, indicating that non-manufacturing companies such as services continued to expand. Another British poll showed that before the London terror attack, British Prime Minister May's Conservative Party lead was only 1%. The sudden announcement of Saudi Arabia and other countries to cut diplomatic relations with Qatar also made crude oil prices full of uncertainty, and the global situation still has risks. Domestically, the People's Bank of China conducted a one-year MLF operation of 498 billion yuan, and the winning interest rate was 3.2%, the same as the previous period. Near the middle of the year, the market is still expected to be tight on funds. In addition, many banks in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou have tightened their mortgage policies again recently, and some banks have raised the interest rate of first-time home loans by 10% or even 20%.
market
Shanghai copper futures fell slightly. Holders wanted to sell at a firm premium. Speculators were cautious. Some middlemen took delivery due to long-term delivery demand. Flat water copper is still low in price and has almost no price difference with good copper. Wet copper is still lacking. People are interested, and the price difference with Pingshui copper has widened. The mainstream fluctuation range of copper during the day is only within 50 yuan / ton, and the supply is relatively quiet. Although some downstream copper prices have fallen, the receiving volume has increased slightly, but the overall transaction has not been See improvement.
On the whole, the global macroeconomic recovery is relatively mild. The appreciation of the RMB, the increase in risk aversion, and the tightening of funds still put pressure on the copper market. With the end of the peak consumption season, the supporting role of terminal consumption on copper prices will gradually weaken, and a bearish thinking will be maintained in the medium term.
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