Domestic commodities plummeted collectively, copper price outlook is still mainly bearish
On Wednesday, affected by the sharp drop in the outer market during the Dragon Boat Festival, the main Shanghai copper 1707 contract gapped and opened lower at 45,690 yuan / ton. The capital continued to show a tight trend. Shibor went up across the board, and the offshore RMB rose to 6.7670. Domestic Commodities fell sharply. After the opening of the market, Shanghai copper traded around the daily average of 45,750 yuan/ton. Under the influence of long positions, Shanghai copper began to oscillate downward, gradually moving away from the daily average. A small amount of short-selling entered in late trading, at 45,230 yuan. / ton closed at the big Yinxian, down 820 yuan / ton. During the day, Shanghai copper futures opened lower and moved lower. Affected by the appreciation of the RMB, the decline was deeper than that of the outer market, and the capital was in a state of net outflow. It is expected that the copper price will still be mainly bearish in the market outlook, and will move down the track.
London copper opened at 5,660 yuan/ton, and the capital continued to show a tight trend. After the opening, the copper price shot up to $5,694/ton in a short-term. The moving average was consolidating near US$5,674/ton. In the afternoon, with the rise of the RMB, commodities fell collectively, and the bulls flowed out one after another. The price of copper fell smoothly. , fell 22 US dollars / ton, crude oil was at 48.73 US dollars / barrel, the US dollar index was at 97.319, and the London copper continued its downward trend. Major banks will assess various indicators on June 10 this year, and some loan approvals will be suspended at that time. Funds will show a tense trend, the RMB has shown a trend of soaring, and the pressure on the commodity market has become heavier.
According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, China's official manufacturing PMI in May was 51.2, higher than the expected value of 51.00, while the official non-manufacturing PMI in May was 54.5. Some analysts believe that there was no further decline in the manufacturing PMI in May, which confirms that the decline in the manufacturing PMI in April was only a fall from an excessively high level in the previous period. At present, the PMI has remained above the line of prosperity and decline for 10 consecutive months, indicating that economic growth has stabilized. The situation is further clarified.
After the holiday, the Shanghai copper futures made up for a drop of nearly 400 yuan. During the holiday, some imported copper was cleared and put into storage. In addition, on the last trading day at the end of the month, subject to financial pressure, there were many people who offered to ship for cash, and the discounted price gradually expanded. Downstream consumption Few people are interested, the willingness to replenish inventory is weak, and speculative trade buying is also prudent due to the settlement factor at the end of the month, and the overall market during the day fully shows the characteristics of the end of the month. In the afternoon, the financial affairs of various enterprises entered a state of settlement, and the holders were still quoting, but the discount had been slightly narrowed to the price platform in the morning due to the further drop of 300 yuan / ton on the disk, and the flat water copper was quoted at a discount of 80 yuan / ton Water is 50 yuan / ton, and the premium copper is quoted at a discount of 50 yuan / ton - a discount of 30 yuan / ton, and the transaction price is further reduced to 45,200 yuan / ton - 45,540 yuan / ton. It is expected that after the month, the holders still want to increase the price and collect the discount first, and determine the trend of the discount according to the size of the supply pressure.
On the whole, the recovery of the global macro economy is relatively mild, but the recent accumulation of macro events, increased risk aversion, tightening of funds and joint supervision of the financial industry will still put pressure on the copper market. With the end of the peak consumption season, terminal consumption will support copper prices. Gradually weaken, and maintain a bearish thinking in the medium term.