Shanghai copper spot price at the end of March 2019
Spot analysis: Shanghai electrolytic copper spot traded at a premium of 1100 yuan/ton to the current month contract - a premium of 1300 yuan/ton, the transaction price of flat water copper was 49580 yuan/ton-49820 yuan/ton, and the premium copper transaction price was 49680 yuan/ton-49950 yuan/ton . On the last trading day of March, Shanghai copper futures rose all the way after the morning market opened, rising by about 300 yuan/ton in the morning. Today, most companies in the market have entered a state of settlement at the end of the month. The quotations of enterprises with invoices are extremely high. Haotong Wen has a price of about 1250 yuan/ton in premium, and there are also quotations with a premium of more than 1300 yuan/ton. In the morning market of Pingshui copper, some companies are selling a small amount of goods at a premium of about 1100 yuan/ton. Now, after being swept away, the price of copper has been raised to more than 1,150 yuan/ton, and the wet copper has stabilized at a premium of 900-950 yuan/ton. On the last trading day, the market was mostly cautious and wait-and-see, showing that there is a price but no market, waiting for the price including 13% value-added tax after entering April next week.
Warehouse receipt inventory: warehouse receipt 185915, -2224; on March 28, LME copper inventory was 169,950 tons, a decrease of 775 tons from the previous trading day. As of March 22, 2019, the cathode copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 259,172 tons, a decrease of 5,429 tons from the previous week. From a seasonal perspective, current inventories remain at an average level compared to the last five years.
The main positions: the top 20 long positions of the Shanghai Copper 1905 contract are 66655, +2462; the short positions are 70327, -290. Mainstream positions show more growth and shortfalls.
Market research and judgment: Shanghai copper opened higher today and moved higher, due to news that China's large copper smelters cut copper refining costs (TC/RC) by more than 20%, and the market expects copper mine supply to further tighten. In the spot market, on the last trading day, the market was mostly cautious and wait-and-see. Technically, the Shanghai copper 1905 contract has strengthened, but it is still under pressure near the middle track of the Bollinger Band. If copper prices are expected to break through further, more positive support is needed. Operationally, it is suggested that the Shanghai copper 1905 contract can be considered between 48,300-49,000 yuan / ton to sell high and buy low, with a stop loss of 300 yuan / ton.