[Copper price] Copper price opens the era of 50,000 yuan, and there are obvious signs of capital speculation

  The main Shanghai copper contract rose strongly at 1709 on Wednesday, and closed up to 48,560 yuan/ton in late trading, close to the intraday high of 48,690 yuan/ton. At present, Shanghai copper has effectively stabilized above the moving average group, and the upward trend remains. In terms of term structure, the copper market maintained a positive arrangement of near-low and far-high, and the spread between the Shanghai copper 1708 contract and the 1709 contract expanded to 140 yuan/ton.

  outer disk

  London copper soared strongly in the Asian city, once hitting US$6,400/ton, but near the close of Shanghai market, London copper fell from its high level in 3 months and entered the European market. The high point fell 1.88%, and the current LME copper hit the highest point since May 18, 2015. In terms of positions, on July 21, London copper positions were 330,000 lots, a slight increase of 33 lots per day. Last week, copper prices lightened up and strengthened, showing that shorts were actively covered.


  On July 26, the Shanghai electrolytic copper spot reported a discount of 90 yuan/ton to the current month contract - a discount of 20 yuan/ton, and the flat water copper transaction price was 49370-50130 yuan/ton. In the early market, copper was still at a high level below 49,500 yuan, and the market quotation remained stable at a discount of 50 yuan / ton to 20 yuan / ton. Although there are inquiries, the room for price pressure is limited, and the supply and demand stalemate is obvious. During the second trading period, the copper futures plate stood at 50,000 yuan across the board, but the spot market was cautiously stopped. Speculative winners expanded the discount to exchange for cash. / ton, wet copper has been expanded to more than 100 yuan / ton, but the quotations have decreased, the inquiry has decreased, and the transaction has been less. Although the market is bullish on the bullish trend, but the spot buying, whether it is traders or downstream, still can not enter the market decisively above 50,000 yuan. With the increase of speculative profit disks and the gradual expansion of the basis every other month, the spot discount may be further expanded.


  The US dollar index in Asia continued to fluctuate within a low range and is now trading around 94.1, close to the low set on June 23 last year. In addition, the US Richmond Fed manufacturing index rose to 14 in July, higher than the expected 7 and the previous value of 7. At the same time, the US Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index rose to 121.1 in July, compared with the expected 116.5, and consumer confidence has improved.

  copper industry

  It is reported that the Recycling Branch of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association said that it has received a notice: by the end of next year, scrap metal including scrap wires, scrap electric motors and scrap metal will be banned from importing, and six types of scrap copper and scrap aluminum will not be banned. After confirming with the Recycling Branch, the import of "Waste Category 7" will be banned by the end of 2018.

  During the day, the Shanghai copper 1709 contract soared strongly to 50,050 yuan/ton. Although it fell from a high level during the session, the increase was still objective, which completely opened the 50,000-year copper era and performed better than other base metals. However, in the short-term copper market, due to factors such as the ban on import of 7 types of scrap copper, there are obvious signs of capital speculation, and long and short operations should be cautious. In terms of operation, it is recommended that the Shanghai copper 1709 contract can sell high and buy low in the range of 49,600-50,800 yuan, with a stop loss of 500 yuan/ton each.