Shanghai copper dips and rebounds, short-term shocks are viewed
Market review: Shanghai copper dropped and rebounded today. The trading range of the cu1905 contract was 48,140-48,480 yuan/ton, closing at 48,360 yuan/ton, down 0.04% on a daily basis. The open interest is 210982, -462; the basis is 1020, +70 compared with the previous day. In terms of external disks, as of 15:35, the three-month London copper was reported at $6,353.00 per ton, up 0.27% on a daily basis.
In terms of copper industry information: Peruvian top government officials came out on Wednesday, hoping to peacefully resolve disputes over indigenous communities blocking traffic to copper mines. The multi-day dispute has led to the suspension of shipments from Las Bambas, Peru's largest copper mine. Peruvian Prime Minister Salvador del Solar said a government committee headed by three ministers would engage in dialogue with the Fuerabamba community through a mediator. Last week, the community leader and lawyer were arrested on suspicion of extorting copper mine owner Minmetals Resources.
Spot analysis: Shanghai electrolytic copper spot traded at a premium of 1080 yuan/ton to the current month contract - a premium of 1250 yuan/ton, the transaction price of flat copper was 49280 yuan/ton to 49350 yuan/ton, and the premium copper transaction price was 49400 yuan/ton to 49480 yuan/ton. . Shanghai copper futures continued to fluctuate in the range of 48,200-48,300 yuan / ton. In the last two trading days before the end of the month, the holders were stable, and there was no rush to exchange for cash, but the quotation became more firm. Pingshui copper is 1100-1150 yuan / ton, the inquiry atmosphere is light, the transaction is quiet, and it is slightly loose after 10 o'clock. Good copper is slightly lower than the premium of 1220 yuan / ton, and the price of flat water copper can be reduced to the premium of 1080 yuan / ton. The premium of wet copper is around 920 yuan / ton, and the downstream replenishment is also gradually decreasing. Approaching the end of the month, in order to avoid disagreements and conflicts between the supply and demand sides on the invoice, the market transaction has obviously weakened, and the quotation has been stable. Some speculators turned to next month's invoice supply in advance, but the market's invoice performance for next month is still unstable. The premium for good copper ranges from 50-100 yuan/ton, and the discount for flat copper ranges from 60 yuan/ton to 20 yuan/ton. The group receiving goods is small, and everyone is still cautious.
Warehouse receipt inventory: warehouse receipt 188139, +554; on March 27, LME copper inventory was 170,725 tons, a decrease of 1,550 tons from the previous trading day. As of March 22, 2019, the cathode copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 259,172 tons, a decrease of 5,429 tons from the previous week. From a seasonal perspective, current inventories remain at an average level compared to the last five years.
The main positions: the top 20 long positions of the Shanghai Copper 1905 contract are 65078, +2129; the short positions are 70959, -212. Mainstream positions show more growth and shortfalls.
Market research and judgment: Today, Shanghai copper dips and rebounds. At present, the market generally pays attention to the progress of the new round of trade negotiations between China and the United States. Therefore, the overall performance is relatively cautious, with a strong wait-and-see attitude, and short-term suggestions are volatile. In the spot market, the holders of goods have a stable mentality and are not in a hurry to exchange cash at all. The downstream replenishment is also gradually decreasing, the market transaction has obviously weakened, and the quotation has been stable. Some speculators turned to next month's invoice supply in advance, but the market's invoice performance for next month was still unstable, and there were few people receiving goods, so everyone was still cautious. Technically, the Shanghai copper 1905 contract has strong buying support around 48,000 yuan/ton, but it was under obvious pressure near the 60-day moving average today. Operationally, it is suggested that the Shanghai copper 1905 contract can be considered between 48,000-48,800 yuan / ton, sell high and buy low, with a stop loss of 300 yuan / ton.
Source: Ruida Futures The above content is for reference only, and the risk of entering the market is at your own risk.