Shanghai copper finished higher and fell, still suppressed by the upper moving average
On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai copper finished at 1707 and fell back, showing a weak rebound. It traded at 45,460-44,860 yuan/ton during the day, and closed at 45,240 yuan/ton in late trading, down 0.2% daily. Shanghai copper fell to run below the main moving average group, showing that in the long-short competition, the short side is dominant, and the downside risk still exists. In terms of term structure, the copper market maintained a positive arrangement of near-low and far-high, and the premium spread between the Shanghai copper 1706 contract and the 1707 contract narrowed to 40 yuan/ton.
The Asian city of London copper continued to fall under pressure. Among them, the 3-month London copper operating range was US$5,674-5,644/ton, down 1.22% to US$5,618/ton. , the current copper price has fallen below the moving average group, and the downside risk has increased. In terms of positions, on June 1st, the position of London copper was 331,000 lots, with a daily increase of 1,296 lots. Last week, the London copper continued to lighten up its positions, showing that long and short positions were lightened up and the copper market sentiment was sluggish.
The U.S. dollar index continued to fall under pressure overnight, and the Asian market traded around 96.7, hitting a new low in more than six months, as the number of non-farm payrolls in the United States increased by 138,000 in May, lower than market expectations of 185,000, but the unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, lower than the previous value of 4.4% and a 16-year low. Focus on the European Central Bank interest rate meeting and the UK election on Thursday. In the copper industry, the United States imported about 50,398 tons of cathode copper in April, an increase of 10,739 tons or 27% year-on-year, and the cumulative import from January to April was 247,948 tons, an increase of 54,688 tons or 28.3% year-on-year; during the same period, the United States exported 25,184 tons of cathode copper, a year-on-year decrease. 41,891 tonnes or 62.5%.
On June 5, Shanghai electrolytic copper spot traded at a discount of 20 yuan/ton to the current month contract - a premium of 20 yuan/ton, the transaction price of flat water copper was 45190-45240 yuan/ton, and the transaction price of premium copper was 45210-45260 yuan/ton. The holder wants to raise the premium, and push up the price of spot copper to reproduce a slight premium. However, some imported copper arrived in the early stage, and the proportion of low-end copper imported in the market increased. In particular, the performance of wet copper was obvious. Businesses are mostly short-term and fast, and the enthusiasm for active operations has declined. The downstream receives goods on demand, and the market highlights the characteristics of Monday.
The Shanghai copper 1707 contract was weakly sorted to 45,240 yuan/ton during the day. In the short term, Shanghai copper is still suppressed by the upper moving average, and the downside risk still exists. It is suggested that the operation should turn from oscillation to bearish. The Shanghai copper 1707 contract can be backed by 45,800 yuan. 44,500 yuan.