The power gap of China Southern Power Grid reaches 13 million kilowatts
The National Development and Reform Commission said on March 20 that in February this year, the country's largest electricity curtailment load was 5.66 million kilowatts, a month-on-month decrease of 870,000 kilowatts; the cumulative power curtailment was 1.29 billion kilowatt-hours, an increase of 640 million kilowatt-hours. The power curtailment provinces in the month were mainly concentrated in the five provinces (regions) of Guangdong, Guangxi, Guizhou, Yunnan and Hainan under the jurisdiction of China Southern Power Grid. Among them, Guangdong, Guangxi, Guizhou, and Yunnan are mainly affected by the dryness of incoming water, and the reduction of hydropower generation will affect the implementation of the West-East power transmission plan; Hainan suffered short-term and small power cuts in late February due to unit failure.
According to experts from the China Electricity Council, due to the drought, the power transmission to Guangdong Province from Guangxi, Guizhou, Yunnan and other places dropped by 50% from January to February, resulting in a power shortage in Guangdong. In order to cope with the power gap, Guangdong Province has adopted measures such as power curtailment and peak regulation to curb the rapid rebound in power consumption, while local power plants are running at full capacity. This also makes the growth rate of electricity consumption in Guangdong from January to February lower than the national average, only 5.3%, while the growth rate of power generation is more than 10%.
China Southern Power Grid Corporation pointed out that due to the water and coal conditions, the water and thermal power units may not be able to output at full capacity, and the power supply may continue to be tight throughout the year. It is predicted that the largest power gap in the entire network this year will be around 13 million kilowatts, especially in April-May before the flood season, when power supply is the most difficult. Judging from the specific conditions of each province, Guangdong, Guangxi, and Guizhou have a shortage of power supply throughout the year, and both power and electricity are in short supply. Yunnan has seasonal power shortages, and Hainan has insufficient power at peak times.
The China Southern Power Grid Corporation predicts that the inflow of water in the southern region this year is generally drier than the average for many years. Among them, the Hongshui River is 3-5% dry, the Wujiang River is 4-5% dry, the Lancang River is 2-3% dry, and the Jinsha River is 20% dry. If the water supply ratio is predicted to be dry or 20% dry, it will affect the hydropower generation capacity by about 40 billion kWh. At the same time as the water conditions are not good, there are also problems of poor coal quality and insufficient quantity. Except for Guangdong and Hainan, the supply situation of thermal coal in the other three provinces and regions is relatively serious.
Due to the large proportion of thermal power in East China, Central China, and North China, coupled with the decline in the growth rate of power demand, the power supply and demand balance this spring. However, experts from the China Electricity Council pointed out that although the growth rate of electricity consumption has declined year-on-year, electricity consumption is still increasing, especially in March, when industrial electricity consumption resumes, electricity demand will increase rapidly until the peak summer period. There is still a power gap of 30-40 million kilowatts. Experts predict that the power supply and demand in the North China Power Grid will be generally tight this year, and temperature and thermal coal will have a greater impact on the balance of power supply and demand. In addition, the power supply and demand in the East China Power Grid region is tight, especially during the peak summer season, and the largest power gap in the entire grid will exceed 12 million kilowatts.